This is my last post for this year as I go into Christmas recess. I will be back on January 9th, 2017 with tons of fresh analysis poured onto the fabric of global energy. It’s going to be a fantastic year. But now – how about bringing balance to the force as my last act […]
Some time ago, I have written about the LPG tidal wave that hits us mostly from the US and how it shakes the world in its foundations. LPG (Propane and Butane in whatever mixing proportion you happen to like it) are already a pretty exotic market when compared to crude and other refined produces. Most […]
So, OPEC has finally shown that they mean business and decided that they would reduce oil supply in order to prop up prices. I don’t want to belabor the futility of this gesture as I believe that no reduction any OPEC member would willingly abide by could change the fundamental oversupply situation oil finds itself […]
Dear President-elect Donald J. Trump, This letter might be a little odd for you as I am not an American citizen – neither am I a resident of the United States. I live in Europe. However, the problems afflicting this planet are bigger than just one nation can hope to resolve. The United States of […]
This blog post was written a long time ago and it was sort of sitting on my computer all this time. And as I was asked how LNG actually works for a small flare to LNG to power project, I undug it, dusted it off and here we go. That’s one for the cool ones. […]
My year 1988 was dominated by my mandatory spell of military service in Austria. It was also some form of rupture in my life as my world would never be the same after it. I shook off the shackles of youth and ventured out into the world. Back then, I was sitting with some other […]
So, Elon has announced what he wants Tesla to do over the next years in his new strategic plan. Plus he has shown us that solar roofs can be really sexy. And Tesla’s planned takeover of Solar City shall give his new plans much-needed flesh. It’s all very grand, bombastic and ambitious – as we […]
Look wherever you want, you are swamped by stories on the LNG wave that’s about to hit Europe. After almost a decade of neglect, Europe becomes the powerhouse of global LNG trade again not because of its vanilla qualities but rather because the old world is the last place where LNG exporters with no captive […]
LNG is clean and hence destined to be part of the world’s war against coal. Japan bucks the trend as it increases coal consumption and reduces LNG.
Everyone who has touched upon trading – as the term is understood today – very quickly falls victim to the impression that this casino is the real economy. And that indices, charts, KPI’s and financial market performance is all that matters. It does not take long and the virtual world has you in its clutches. […]
OK, we got it by now. In an unfathomable show of splendor, OPEC has congregated in Algiers in order to show the world that it still matters and that finally, after a zillion attempts and a lot of trepidation (that’s what it felt like at least) it will reduce the volume of crude it supplies […]
In 2005, the Natural Gas world looked at North America to become the El Dorado for all LNG exporters. Natural gas prices in the US were sky high, reserves were dwindling and demand ever growing. It resulted in an LNG bonanza without equal with more than 60 LNG import terminal proposals lining the coasts of […]
After wood, coal, oil and its derivatives, it’s methane gas that will rule the energy world. If you need reasons why this is so, you are a first time visitor to this blog. Piece of advice: clean your schedule for the rest of the day and get reading. For all the rest of you methane […]
It’s one of the most commented topics of the last couple of years. Will Russia provide Europe with all the gas it needs – and whenever the discussion heats up, it veers off into the political realm? I won’t comment on the conflict in the Ukraine in this post and not even on Russia’s willingness […]
After the collapse of communism in 1989, Fukuyama famously predicted the end of history. His words were some of the most egregious blunders in the predicting business as from where I am standing, history is currently making large strides. It’s hard to remember a time in my life which was so dominated by conflict. Even […]
The vast majority of those reading those lines have enjoyed some form of schooling – a time when elementary education was meted out in order to make those unruly, pesky, adorable sweet little beings we were at birth a commodity. Future employers want to know what they get from an average human and they want […]
Now that even the most bull-headed traders have understood that high price LNG and the sellers market have gone away, the game has changed. Prodigious additional amounts of LNG will hit the energy consumption world and the question of where it all shall go is burning on everyone’s mind. However, as strange as it seems, […]
Those who have seen the first installment of the famous “Hellboy” series will remember the scene where professor Broom sees Kroenen coming down the stairs and asks the all important question “I see the puppet but where is the puppet player?”. Kroenen was merely a puppet with just the modicum of a free will. The […]
More than 3 years ago I wrote about North America being the El Dorado of energy because of all those exciting developments in shale gas. In a sense, it also became the green beacon of the world as cheap gas has reduced coal usage significantly and might even sniff it out completely. On that matter […]
More than 2000 years ago, before the dawn of the Roman Empire, you would have been forgiven to think that the island world of the Eastern Mediterranean was the center of the world. Some of the most illustrious empires either had their center of power there or were bordering its shores. Today the islands of […]
Joggers know the problem. Every time you jog close to a road with a little more traffic than just an occasional vehicle, an eerie feeling creeps up on you. All this exhaust from the vehicles can sure be no good for me. Wouldn’t it be better to do our rounds in a piece of woods […]
Three and a half years ago I wrote about the Black Mamba. That’s a phenomenon under which a project has overspent in order to get itself built and suddenly that market does not provide the kind of returns needed to allow for the project to generate enough revenues for repaying investments made – with a […]
We are halfway through 2016 and Africa looks set for despair and gloom. Faltering oil prices have brought misery to many African countries that have grown dependent on the oil income and yet, there is a strong silver lining as the easy clippings from oil and gas gave all African nations the wrong sort of […]
For the longest time (about a decade or so) the LNG world was a certain place. The stuff itself was hard to get and expensive, sellers were courted at every whim and Asia paid steep premiums, which is why all efforts have been on this market plus some non-Asian exotics like Spain or Latin America. […]
A couple of years ago (I don’t remember the precise year) I read an article on hydroponic farming and also that no more than the area of Vermont would suffice to feed the world if it would be farmed to the best available methods today. Feeding the world is a goal that deserves our best […]
The new situation we have with comparatively cheaper LNG is sharpening our senses for new opportunities. This happens out of pain experienced by the producers as well as out of opportunistic endeavor in potential consuming markets. Either way, we are all happy takers and won’t look at the teeth too much – won’t we? There […]
Last week we have seen that there is more and more oil coming online despite some problems in other oil-producing regions of the world and also despite the drop in sale oil production that is in full swing now. However, I also hinted that the real toxic problem lies somewhere else. Those who believe that […]
Years ago, I was in endless discussions about robots that will do any job humans do eventually and in those days, I still had a lot of convincing to do. That’s very different now, as we have the writing all over the wall and the question is rather when – not if. But what stupefies […]
So, OPEC has met and decided that the world is good as it is and there is no change of strategy needed. Who is surprised here? Who is indeed expecting any shift coming from OPEC right now? They are clearly not in the driving seat anymore and if they still are in the seat, breaks […]
Looking at the North Western European coastlines one can see a neat row of LNG terminals from the French Bretagne up to the Netherlands and after Denmark, it continues right into the Baltic Sea to Poland and now Lithuania. What pops out, even more, is the gaping hole made up by Germany. The biggest, and […]
100 years ago, schools for mentally handicapped children were called “Institutions for the imbecile and the mentally deficient”. Our vocabulary has prettied up somewhat since those sinister days whenever we deal with other humans, those that are different from what we would consider as the mainstream today. The label, however, is still the same. It’s […]
Iran’s sanctions have been lifted a couple of months now and it just looks like, things are not going exactly as planned for the Iranians. My readers will remember that I predicted this outcome in mid-January this year. The reasons are many but the ONE, the big and significant reason can be summarized as “Nobody […]
About 2 years ago I was contacted in order to work on the South African energy dilemma and indeed, I immediately saw enormous potential for new, lucrative investments. The problem was pronounced and the need was clearly there. But things were by far not as easy and as obvious as one would have guessed. Let’s […]
No matter how many years I blast the message to the world, nothing got people’s attention on the shortcomings of diesel as a fuel better than the wave of excitement on Volkswagens cheatings in the US. To be sure, Volkswagen is not the only cheater here as we know well now. This affair goes far […]
Many years ago, an old sea bear and meanwhile a good friend told me that whatever you do on land gets inevitably harder when you are on the water. Space is confined and processes that have been designed for still land are exposed to all kinds of movements. This simple deduction stuck with me and […]
We are living in weird times. OPEC floods the market with crude oil in order to kill off shale as an industry and also to keep Iranians and Russians at bay. The cartel itself is under enormous strain as less wealthy members are in utter disarray, and we might even see one of them blow […]
It’s a bit obscene – for years we have watched the meteoric rise of shale oil and now, as prices have gone down dramatically the party seems to be over. Doom and gloom at big shalecorp? Not so fast. The wild story reminds me of the DotCom bubble around 2000. I was working for a […]
Here is a warning – this article is speculation as many others in this blog were so far. Indeed, everything on the future is speculation as the misfirings of our forecasters about the oil price in 2014 have shown. But sometimes, even the most outlandish speculation comes to happen. Shall we? In December 1991, the […]
It’s a part of popular science today. One day the human race would leave planet earth and go to other places and in order to make them a little more palatable to our balmy needs, we would terraform those places. There are terraforming proposals for all terrestrial planets and the moon. There are proposals to […]
In June 2014, I made a wager with a friend (here is the full story) when the price of oil was slightly above 100 USD. Let’s restate the full wager again here for the sake of clarity. I said that before March 31st, 2016, WTI would have been below USD 28.- for a minimum of […]
The last 12 months have seen 3 new LNG consumers added to the growing mix of converts to this cool energy form – Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan. All have implemented quick FSRU solutions in order to get into the LNG game and all of them are pretty classic base-load markets with otherwise pretty predictable, and […]
The mother of all battles is on in the gas industry. Don’t see it yet? Then you must be living on Mars. Gazprom certainly sees it and is rushing out to warn everyone who wants to listen – and those who don’t – that there will be no price war for gas in Europe and […]
It’s a bit late to write about Fukushima, don’t you agree? If this post would be about Fukushima it would indeed be a bit late. But the issue I am putting my teeth in here is much larger. Fukushima has become a symbol for deadly industries, for the nuclear holocaust, for the apparent fact that […]
Back in early 2012, I dashed down some thoughts I had with a client buddy onto my scratchboard. He was giving “getting himself into the LNG business” some serious thought. Here is what I told him back then: Quote: LNG is not like oil, it’s not like oil products. Not even like any commodity you […]
Free falling oil prices are blamed for much of the ills of the world – unfairly so as I pointed out many times. The low prices also hold the promise of a better, more efficient, greener, cleaner, more decentralized and more sustainable energy future. However, very high oil prices have also given birth to a […]
In the dying days of 2008, a bunch of renegade gas players congregated in Rotterdam in order to make history. Well, it was certainly not their foremost intention to make history – that was more of some sort of unintended consequences and most of them might not even have dared to dream how things would […]
China has abandoned its one-child policy. It was about time as this draconian measure resulted in one of the most devastating shifts in population patterns the world has ever seen. Armies of males that will never find brides as girls were frequently aborted under the iron-first one child rule. Scarce girls that were traded in […]
In September this year, it will be 4 years that I have set sail and left the safe harbor. It was a bumpy ride to be sure but besides my wife and my kids, it was the best thing that ever happened to me. When I say it was a bumpy ride, it might sound […]
Who knows the tale of Heracles who – for a moment – carries the weight of the heavens on his shoulders. King Eurystheus had charged Heracles with 12 labors in order to atone for the slaughter of his family. The eleventh labor was fetching the Golden Apples of Hesperides and it was this labor that […]
Until about one year ago, every time I went to Sub-Saharan Africa, I entered a bustling world, awash with cash from black goo. Oil made the new fortunes of many of those countries and gave them a fillip like never before. One case in point was Angola with its brand new glitzy Luanda skyline and […]
When Nigeria LNG started operations in 1999, it had become the LNG project that has gone to FID with the longest lead time from “first conception” to realization ever. There was a first idea for the project as early as 1974 – at least, that’s the earliest I know. There is one project lagging even […]
I am just getting out of the thick of the Central European Gas Conference – which was mighty well organized I must confess. The LNG focus day had reinforced everything I have said for years and which was also on the horizon for even the blind to see for months. We are facing a huge […]
Poor Iranians are really in bad luck. Or are they? Their agreement with the world – ending the sanctions they have been living under after many years – is now in full force. They sure have expected a wave of oil investment to hit their country soon – maybe immediately and rightfully so. However, just […]
Everyone holds his breath as one of the most important hydrocarbon exporters on earth gears up to get back into the business. However, that’s not an easy quest for even as big an oil & gas nation as Iran undoubtedly is. Because over the last couple of years, the world has become a very different […]
Who remembers what’s this on the picture above. That’s right, it’s a film roll from the biggest ever brand for foto equipment, Kodak Eastman. Once upon a time, photography was a perfect business. In order to have some memories of – whatever – you needed a big clunky camera that you had to buy expensively […]
It’s almost 9 years ago that I was asked to perform an in-company introductory course on LNG for the employees of the company I worked for at the time. It was a short 3-hour affair and I threw in everything I could possibly scratch on the matter. In the end, I just got known as […]
I have already written in Oculus Rift and other systems and how they are going to impact on business travel or education. But one might believe that this technological revolution will take decades to take hold in the mainstream as it’s the fad of some geeks, business or technology wise. Really? Many years back, at […]
This article was written in summer 2015, before the break of the VW scandal as it was published in NGV. I just forgot to publish it here so far but don’t want to alter the original article so – enjoy. Imagine the world without diesel. It has been the backbone of modern logistics for as […]
Anyone checking regularly on the oil price must blush from time to time. One of the consequences of the lower oil price is that the world is currently drowning in other oil-related products as well and there is worse to come as some of those effects spill over onto the non-oil patch. Fast focus on […]
It’s a staple of the green movement. CO2 is bad for the planet. It causes global warming and will eventually make us fry in hell. Behold Venus. This has been conventional wisdom since I can think – at least since I know that environmental protection is a worthy goal that deserves our best efforts. It’s […]
