Destination Clauses – Japan got it all messed up

Anyone following the current flurry of activity in the Asian LNG marketplace must be startled. The casual LNG observer might have the impression that it's some contractual clauses that are at the heart of the problem. And that their modification…

LPG producers – act now or go away forever

About two years ago I was deeply involved in some LPG project concepts for Africa. Already then I had pointed out to my clients that I would go for LNG straight. But they had their reasons to stick with LPG so I made sure they understood my…

Could Russia be importing US LNG soon?

Yeah, I know what you are going to say when reading the title. Now he has gone completely nuts. Russia has the biggest gas reserves on this planet. How on earth would imported US LNG ever make sense? For the sake of the argument, I will not…

Who will pull the curtain on the first gas-electric 18 wheeler/excavator/locomotive

Lads, it's crazy. I have always asked myself why there is so much diesel-electric but there is so little gas-electric. Ever since I have discovered the great potential of LNG (CNG) as fuel at least. Do you need an economic rationale to get…

Is LNG more expensive than pipeline gas?

This is my last post for this year as I go into Christmas recess. I will be back on January 9th, 2017 with tons of fresh analysis poured onto the fabric of global energy. It's going to be a fantastic year. But now - how about bringing balance…

The Ethane conundrum

Some time ago, I wrote about the LPG tidal wave that hits us mostly from the US and how it shakes the world in its foundations. LPG (Propane and Butane in whatever mixing proportion you like) is already a pretty exotic market compared to crude…

There is a monster waiting for OPEC – and it’s not shale

So, OPEC has finally shown that they mean business and decided that they would reduce oil supply to prop up prices. I don't want to belabor the futility of this gesture as I believe that no reduction any OPEC member would willingly abide by…

Open letter to President-elect Donald J. Trump

Dear President-elect Donald J. Trump, This letter might be a little odd for you as I am not an American citizen - neither am I a resident of the United States. I live in Europe. However, the problems afflicting this planet are bigger than…

Distributed electricity Generation with LNG

This blog post was written a long time ago and it was sort of sitting on my computer all this time. As I was asked how LNG works for a small flare to LNG to power project, I undug it, dusted it off and here we go. That's one for the cool ones. LNG…

How energy communism has gotten us into this mess

My year 1988 was dominated by my mandatory spell of military service in Austria. It was also some form of rupture in my life as my world would never be the same after it. I shook off the shackles of youth and ventured out into the world. Back…

The book of Elon

So, Elon has announced what he wants Tesla to do over the next years in his new strategic plan. Plus he has shown us that solar roofs can be sexy. And Tesla's planned takeover of Solar City shall give his new plans much-needed flesh. It's all…

The Qatar LNG backflip

Look wherever you want, you are swamped by stories on the LNG wave that's about to hit Europe. After almost a decade of neglect, Europe has become the powerhouse of global LNG trade again not because of its vanilla qualities but rather because…

Can LNG prevail against the dark side of energy

LNG is clean and hence destined to be part of the world's war against coal. Japan bucks the trend as it increases coal consumption and reduces LNG.

Why some trading and smart contracts don’t make LNG hubs yet

Everyone who has touched upon trading - as the term is understood today - very quickly falls victim to the impression that this casino is the real economy. And that indices, charts, KPIs, and financial market performance are all that matters.…

Just imagine OPEC reduces supply and nobody cares

OK, we got it by now. In an unfathomable show of splendor, OPEC has congregated in Algiers to show the world that it still matters and that finally, after a zillion attempts and a lot of trepidation (that's what it felt like at least) it will…

US shale to the Caribbean

In 2005, the Natural Gas world looked at North America to become the El Dorado for all LNG exporters. Natural gas prices in the US were sky-high, reserves were dwindling, and demand ever growing. It resulted in an LNG bonanza without equal with…

Methane 3.0 – or should we say LMG

After wood, coal, oil, and its derivatives, it's methane gas that will rule the energy world. If you need reasons why this is so, you are a first-time visitor to this blog. Piece of advice: clean your schedule for the rest of the day and get…

Does Russia have the gas Europe needs

It’s one of the most commented topics of the last couple of years. Will Russia provide Europe with all the gas it needs - and whenever the discussion heats up, it veers off into the political realm? I won’t comment on the conflict in Ukraine…

We must suffer – from here until Methanopolis coming

After the collapse of communism in 1989, Fukuyama famously predicted the end of history. His words were some of the most egregious blunders in the predicting business as from where I am standing, history is currently making large strides. It's…

Is school – as we know it – torture?

When will US LNG Terminals switch off

Now that even the most bull-headed traders have understood that high-price LNG and the seller's market have gone away, the game has changed. Prodigious additional amounts of LNG will hit the energy consumption world and the question of where…

We see the LNG supply – but where is the demand?

Those who have seen the first installment of the famous "Hellboy" series will remember the scene where Professor Broom sees Kroenen coming down the stairs and asks the all-important question "I see the puppet but where is the puppet player?".…

The LNG battery – better than real batteries and coal

More than 3 years ago I wrote about North America being the El Dorado of energy because of all those exciting developments in shale gas. In a sense, it also became the green beacon of the world as cheap gas has reduced coal usage significantly…

An Eastern Mediterranean LNG hub

More than 2000 years ago, before the dawn of the Roman Empire, you would have been forgiven for thinking that the island world of the Eastern Mediterranean was the center of the world. Some of the most illustrious empires either had their center…

Jogging on a clogged street – no more dangerous than jogging in a mountain village

Joggers know the problem. Every time you jog close to a road with a little more traffic than just an occasional vehicle, an eerie feeling creeps up on you. All this exhaust from the vehicles can sure be no good for me. Wouldn't it be better…

LNG production will become cheap – real cheap

Three and a half years ago I wrote about the Black Mamba. That's a phenomenon under which a project has overspent to get itself built and suddenly that market does not provide the kind of returns needed to allow for the project to generate enough…

Are those low oil prices the best chance Africa had in a long time?

We are halfway through 2016 and Africa looks set for despair and gloom. Faltering oil prices have brought misery to many African countries that have grown dependent on the oil income and yet, there is a strong silver lining as the easy clippings…

The first LNG Market Maker – born when the world was not looking

For the longest time (about a decade or so) the LNG world was a certain place. The stuff itself was hard to get and expensive, sellers were courted at every whim and Asia paid steep premiums, which is why all efforts have been on this market…

City farming or the hanging gardens of Methanopolis

LNG in South Africa

The new situation we have with comparatively cheaper LNG is sharpening our senses for new opportunities. This happens out of pain experienced by the producers as well as out of opportunistic endeavors in potential consuming markets. Either way,…

Why we could see less than 30 USD oil again – part 2

Last week we saw that there is more and more oil coming online despite some problems in other oil-producing regions of the world and also despite the drop in sales of oil production that is in full swing now. However, I also hinted that the…

Did you say your job is safe from robots?

Why we could see less than 30 USD oil again – part 1

So, OPEC has met and decided that the world is good as it is and no strategy change is needed. Who is surprised here? Who is expecting any shift from OPEC right now? They are not in the driving seat anymore, and if they still are in the seat,…

The first German LNG terminal

Looking at the North Western European coastlines one can see a neat row of LNG terminals from the French Bretagne up to the Netherlands and after Denmark, it continues right into the Baltic Sea to Poland and now Lithuania. What pops out,…

Iran / India – an energy partnership?

Iran's sanctions have been lifted a couple of months now and it just looks like, things are not going exactly as planned for the Iranians. My readers will remember that I predicted this outcome in mid-January this year. The reasons are many…

South Africa’s LPG dilemma

About 2 years ago I was contacted to work on the South African energy dilemma and indeed, I immediately saw enormous potential for new, lucrative investments. The problem was pronounced and the need was there. But things were by far not as…

DieselGate – why the US drew first blood and how to get out

No matter how many years I blasted the message to the world, nothing got people's attention on the shortcomings of diesel as a fuel better than the wave of excitement on Volkswagen cheating in the US. To be sure, Volkswagen is not the only cheater…

Floating Regasification – a reality check

Many years ago, an old sea bear and a good friend told me that whatever you do on land is inevitably harder when you are on the water. Space is confined and processes designed for still land are exposed to all kinds of movements. This simple…

What would happen to OPEC if it won the oil price war

We are living in weird times. OPEC floods the market with crude oil to kill off shale as an industry and keep Iranians and Russians at bay. The cartel itself is under enormous strain as less wealthy members are in utter disarray, and we might…

How anarchy works for shale oil

It's a bit obscene - for years we have watched the meteoric rise of shale oil and now, as prices have gone down dramatically the party seems to be over. Doom and gloom at big shalecorp? Not so fast. The wild story reminds me of the DotCom…

What effect would the dismemberment of Russia have to European security of Gas Supply

Here is a warning - this article is speculation as many others in this blog were so far. Indeed, everything on the future is speculation as the misfirings of our forecasters about the oil price in 2014 have shown. But sometimes, even the most…

Forget Goldilocks – we won’t need terraforming

My lost 28 USD oil price wager

In June 2014, I made a wager with a friend (here is the full story) when the price of oil was slightly above 100 USD. Let's restate the full wager again here for the sake of clarity. I said that before March 31st, 2016, WTI would have…

Pakistan – the manacled LNG player

The last 12 months have seen 3 new LNG consumers added to the growing mix of converts to this cool energy from - Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan. All have implemented quick FSRU solutions to get into the LNG game and all of them are pretty classic…

Henry Hub in Europe – Gazproms magic kingdom of sunk cost simulations

The mother of all battles is on in the gas industry. Haven't seen it yet? Then you must be living on Mars. Gazprom certainly sees it and is rushing out to warn everyone who wants to listen - and those who don't - that there will be no price…

Fukushima and why we cling on to ruins

It's a bit late to write about Fukushima, don't you agree? If this post were about Fukushima, it would be a bit late. But the issue I am putting my teeth in here is much larger. Fukushima has become a symbol for deadly industries, for the…

Wanna get into LNG? A reality check.

Back in early 2012, I dashed down some thoughts I had with a client buddy onto my scratchboard. He was giving "getting himself into the LNG business" some serious thought. Here is what I told him back then: Quote: LNG is not like oil,…

News from the deathbed – how marginal technologies may enjoy a revival because of low oil prices

Free-falling oil prices are blamed for much of the ills of the world - unfairly so as I pointed out many times. The low prices also hold the promise of a better, more efficient, greener, cleaner, more decentralized, and more sustainable energy…

A rude awakening for NWE regasification terminal customers and operators

In the dying days of 2008, a bunch of renegade gas players congregated in Rotterdam to make history. Well, it was certainly not their foremost intention to make history - that was more of some sort of unintended consequence and most of them…

How to beat the chattering donkey

Shale, not shallow – the ghosts of hardship

Who knows the tale of Heracles who - for a moment - carries the weight of the heavens on his shoulders? King Eurystheus had charged Heracles with 12 labors to atone for the slaughter of his family. The eleventh labor was fetching the Golden…

Why the African LNG projects boom fades (will be different)

Until about one year ago, every time I went to Sub-Saharan Africa, I entered a bustling world, awash with cash from black goo. Oil made the new fortunes of many of those countries and gave them a fillip like never before. One case in point…

The value of the anchor customer in LNG projects

When Nigeria LNG started operations in 1999, it had become the LNG project that has gone to FID with the longest lead time from "first conception" to realization ever. There was a first idea for the project as early as 1974 - at least, that’s…

LNG pricing – the enemy within (and the one at the door)

I am just getting out of the thick of the Central European Gas Conference - which was mighty well organized—the LNG focus day reinforced everything I have said for years and which was also on the horizon for even the blind to see for months. We…

Why there won’t be a rush for Iranian oil investments – just now

Poor Iranians are really in bad luck. Or are they? Their agreement with the world - ending the sanctions they have been living under after many years - is now in full force. They sure have expected a wave of oil investment to hit their country…

Could The Comoros be a base for hydrocarbon products to Africa

Everyone holds his breath as one of the most important hydrocarbon exporters on earth gears up to get back into the business. However, that’s not an easy quest for even as big an oil & gas nation as Iran undoubtedly is. Because over the…

The Energy Industrial Complex is dead

Who remembers what a film roll for photographic film from Kodak Eastman is? Once upon a time, photography was a perfect business. To have some memories of - whatever - you needed a big clunky camera that you had to buy expensively plus you…

World – meet Methanumorphosis

It's almost 9 years ago I was asked to perform an in-company introductory course on LNG for the employees of the company I worked for at the time. It was a short 3-hour affair and I threw in everything I could scratch. In the end, I just got…