Are tipping points suitable concepts for developing environmental policies?

Tipping Points are great for dramatic storytelling. There is a point and that point is scary dangerous so let’s not come close. When I was younger I snorkeled quite a lot. Once in a tropical country, I snorkeled in a small bay knowing that there was an underwater cliff not far from the coast. I am afraid of the black abyss and knowing that this cliff and the black nothingness was out there kept me out of the water. The bay was beautiful, perfect for snorkeling but knowing that there was a point where I would stain my undies made me forego the pleasure. Climate is an infinitely complex chaotic system that does not lend itself to simulation. This is why all models fail and also why those tipping points are all hogwash.

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