If the Hormuz strait closes you will see Chinese warships in short order. China is no match for the US navy but they will make short work with whatever Iran can field. So a closure would be brief enough to prevent prices from going orbital. Besides, Iran’s leadership may play a pretty rough game but they are not suicidal. They understand that such action would fry all goodwill they still have. Lastly, higher oil prices would be a bonus to shale producers and those are in the US. Why would Iran want that? So, ain’t gonna happen.
The biggest black swan event in the oil market is a disruption to the most critical chokepoint in the Middle East, according to an analyst from S&P Global Platts.