If All Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say, Can We Learn From Them?

In my early LNG days, we were trying to model the cost of transporting LNG from the Middle East to North-Western Europe. I learned a lot about LG transport and its variables, built a fairly complex model in EXCEL, and started to play around. Quickly the model showed me where the hard limits were. Naturally one went beyond those limits from time to time to see what would happen. But we always understood that this was theory and that the real world would be very different – as it was. We can learn but models are unfit to prove anything.

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