What if the rebound does not happen? What if it takes much, much longer to come back? What if consumption falls even further? What if China uses the virus to correct its hyped balance sheets down massively? Lots of speculation but one thing is certain – the current speculative buying spree will be interpreted as real demand growth by many suppliers and traders fuelling another bubble. When it rains, don’t pray for the downpour.
The spree is probably a sign that independent refiners are getting ready for an eventual rebound in demand, taking advantage of the slump in crude prices to buy cheaply.