OPEC, IEA or EIA Completely Wrong in 2020 Oil Market Analysis

In 2016 I had a long discussion with a friend and observer of energy geopolitics. I gave him my take on what I thought that’s going to happen over the next couple of years. A very different take when compared to the big agencies. He told me that I cant say that. He told me that I cannot question their predictions as they got better pedigree. They had the big names and the recognition and I was just a little no-name consultant that had an attitude. Turns out that I hit the mark far better than those big boys. But that’s not my point. My point is that it’s not that because someone has a big name that he knows the future. Nobody knows the future. We can make assumptions and some may turn out right but they might also turn out very wong. But managers like to refer to the numbers given by those big agencies as if they are the holy grail. When they are not.

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