Outlook 2023: Tighter times ahead for oil

If 2022 is anything to go by, then we should be careful about predictions for 2023. But I want to go out on a limb, I fully expect the Ukraine war to be over by the middle of the year, replaced by a short civil war in Belorussia and a much longer one in Russia proper. I expect the China problem to finally show its true face and sound in massive economic shrinking for the biggest population on Earth. Bad news from China might soon eclipse bad news from Russia and we might see the first true battles between energy realists and the religious cult that has dominated politics for so many years. Expect reliable energy to be at a premium in times of deep crisis but Russia will come back as an exporter, albeit diminished. 

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