The Brave New World of Ample Oil

Shale is an important piece of the puzzle. So big, so important that one might be forgiven to think its the only cause of this situation. But it’s not. It’s not even the most important one. People forget all too easily that oil is a longterm business. Decisions you take now start producing effects in 10 years or longer. That’s the time it takes to develop conventional oil and gas fields until they can be spudded. Some fields take longer. 3 digit oil prices have made huge investment decisions possible that otherwise would not have taken. Clearly, people thought that the good times would last forever. But they never do. Those that have made the decisions have cashed their signing bonuses and are kicking it in the Caribbean now. The past has long claws. Shale makes them shorter – but only to a point.

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