What really matters to oil is China. All signs point towards China having contracted the Japanese disease without the societal sophistication Japan has attained. If China – as it certainly looks like right now – goes into a tailspin, much less oil will be needed.
OPEC has lost what control of the oil market it ever had. The actions (or tweets) of three men — Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — will determine the course of oil prices in 2019 and beyond. But of course they each want different things.