Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast Model Flops

Over the past 20 years, I have seen scores of prestigious institutions make all kinds of forecasts and be repeatedly wrong. In fact, I remember that about 10 years ago I met with a friend here in Vienna on the fringes of an energy conference. A very big name from an extremely prestigious institution was there and the 3 of us went to lunch together. We talked about the gas market and this famous person made some forecasts that I did to agree with at all. A couple of years it turned out he was wrong and mine was very close to what eventually came to be. When I talk to my friend about it today, he dismisses it and still takes the word of the famous man over mine. I have looked into the historical performance of some of those institutions and their record is dismal Why do we still believe them?

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