Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Models are dangerous. It takes strong minds to make good use of them without starting to confound them with reality. I have seen grown adults falling in love with a model so much that they forgot the real world around them. When it happens on the trading floor, disaster strikes. When it happens in Climate Science, a virtual world that is used as a surrogate for the real world is created. Never mind the longer it is used, the more it diverges from the real world. If one is not strong enough for using a model (and most are not) then they should be shunned entirely.

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