The Climate Model Muddle

When I still worked as a manager in the energy industry, I had a time when I built intricate models, most of them in EXCEL. I simulated gas logistics, deals, and even the commercial operations of LNG terminals. I learned an awful lot but the most important lesson was that the only models that were worth anything were the simple ones. And also that all depended on variables. Make more variables, put in assumptions and it’s on the definition of the assumptions where you get whatever result you want. Those climate models never match the real world so we know that they should all be discarded and we should look at what we know. Now at the pattern of chicken scratch to predict the future.


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