If I had to pick one then it would be the cost stack of new gas field developments to replace the legacy fields in Western Siberia. They will stop producing somewhere between 2020 and 2030 – that much is certain. There is plenty of new gas further north such as Yamal and even further but those are hideously expensive endeavors. Gazprom does not tell us how expensive but their top brass must know the numbers. Right now, they have lots of cheap legacy gas to cover up. What when that stops?
Undervalued shares, the risk of sanctions and increasing competition with liquefied natural gas are all causing sleepless nights for Gazprom PJSC’s managers.