Will new sanctions trigger a Russian recession?
It already has. Russia was unwell under USD 80 oil. It must be bleeding like a gusher now. Fresh sanctions would hit it in the gut. Russia’s infrastructure is crumbling. Maintenance for most of its infrastructure has been delayed by multiple decades at which point most of it will be so degraded that maintenance won’t save it. And newbuilds are shoddy for the lack of cash. The best infrastructure Russia has today still stands from Soviet times when things were planned properly.
A further wave of US sanctions may spark a Russian recession, even though oil, income from which represents 40% of federal budget revenues, is trading at its highest level in more than four years.