Computer modelled scaremongering ain’t going to cut it anymore

COVID-19 has shown us what all those models are worth. I have worked for a trading company for many years and we used lots of models and data crunching in order to help our decisionmaking process. But most of us were aware that all the gimmicks won’t replace sound understanding of the market and also that you could never trust those models. Especially when situations were really complex with high volumes of fiddley variables. Weather is one of the most chaotic systems we know. The number of variables in infinitely high. Any model must therefore fail – and they all have so far. Lets ditch this crystal ball gazing and work on what we really know, not what some activist cooks up in his laptop.

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