2020 has turned out to be a weirdly exciting year for all of us. For all the wrong reasons I dare say. And it’s not uniquely because of the COVID-19 virus situation.
The oil price war and resulting extreme oil prices, the standoff in the Persian Gulf, world LNG markets in historical oversupply, riots in many US cities, and deep scars in many countries economies due to overuse of the money-printing-press have done their bit and there is so much more.
It’s a year that has started to rip the blinders off our eyes. Because for many years we were running on fumes and on broken ideas, fears, and assumptions. We start to see the true cost of many policies that were lauded to be the solution for all our ills just recently. Some so-called environmental movements have dropped every pretense that their battles are about improving the planet. They now resort to open threats and veiled terrorism.
2020 is not over by a long shot yet so I have one word of advice. Brace. Because this year still has some surprises up its sleeve. The upcoming US elections are just the most prominent of things that will unsettle us during the 4th quarter.
Many of those things will hit us as surprises and trust me, 2021 is going to be no different. But why are we so stunned? Because keen observers of the fundamental drivers and actions of players won’t be so very bewildered. There is no conspiracy. It’s all happening in our faces if we are willing to piece together the puzzle.
Oversupply in LNG was a shock solely to the unprepared. The crisis between OPEC+ and shale came out of the blue only for those with their heads deep in the sand. And that China would cheat and lie even at the cost of millions of deaths worldwide was news alone to those that still drink the Kool-Aid.
We will see changes. Big and violent changes. Bigger than we see them now. History has stepped on the accelerator because it has to. Our past actions do not leave it any choice. But those looking past the models, the assumptions, the narratives, the fear, and threats – it won’t really come as a surprise.
Slowly, the world will have to own the steaming cauldron of crap it has allowed to fester for decades. And pay the price. That will hurt, but it will also create untold opportunities.
If you read those lines, you must be used to very unconventional analysis coming from me. I don’t mince words, I don’t sugarcoat things to make them more palatable to the sensitive. I always look under the rug for what has been swept there. And I will not be afraid to offer daring opinions and analysis. But thats hard work and I need a breather.
For this reason, I will go into a 6 weeks recess during which I will work on strategic projects I have dreamt up and also kick back with the kiddos.
This means that from today on, I will stop actively opening new threads on Social Media but will only reply to comments on my already open threads. I will restart my full Social Media activity by August 24th.
Today, I also send out my last weekly Newsletter until September 1st when the next issue will hit your Mailbox.
A word to the trolls barking up the tree
This will be hard on you. I understand that barking up my tree gives your life meaning. I will be silent for weeks now and that must make you feel incredibly empty and stale.
You may want to consider getting a life. But if you can’t do that, I have a consolation price for you.
I will be back. Stronger, harder, better, sharper, more aggressive than ever before. You will have plenty of stuff to get your juices flowing when that comes around.
Oh, I forgot – I have a special treat. – In September my Podcast comes out. Yes, I know I have talked about it many times and I confess, I had underestimated the task. I am not a media professional and to keep things authentic, I don’t take industry contributions – just yet. I want to be sure that you, those who read, listen, and watch what I do get the unvarnished me.
To all those waiting for my next blog post, comment, update, podcast episode – please have a great summer. Yes, I know. There are many reasons why this summer is may be less great than others. Then again, even during some of the most atrocious wars, pestilence, and famines, people found a reason for joy and laughter. If the guys in the trenches and the women in the bomb shelters could do that, we can too.
We shall overcome whatever is thrown in our way. See you again well-rested and with a cheerful smile in 6 weeks.