In the spat between OPEC+ and US shale drillers there is a hellish dynamic at work. When prices go low, shale drillers are hurting, but they are still a minuscule part of the US economy as a whole. On the other side, OPEC countries gasping for survival. At the same time, US shale drillers are a diverse bunch with lots of entrepreneurial zest strewn in between. No such thing with OPEC+ where oil and gas is lifted by monstrous bureaucracies. Guess who is more nimble footed.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published its first detailed monthly oil forecast for 2020 and it shows something that should strike fear into the hearts of OPEC ministers — from the fourth quarter, America will export more oil than it imports.