Russia’s Budget Can Work With $40 Oil

The author of this article would do well to dig into the concept of a stranded asset. Stranded oil or gas is a reserve where the development cost a way to high in order to justify the cost of development as an investment. We know that there is Kerogen oil in the Austrian east,. We also know that developing this Kerogen would cost far more than importing oil from somewhere else. The Russian deep Arctic reserves are notoriously hard to develop and require rather elevated oil prices to be worth the pain. It’s not for nothing that Gazprom had shelved Shtokman years ago. And Russian shale, yes there is a lot. Bazhenov is gigantic, possibly the biggest field ever. But its also in the Middle of nothing with virtually no infrastructure and also very little known on-field structure. The head start US drillers had in the shale evolution is not possible here. Shale is not as much a technology game as its an optimization, logistics game with plenty of entrepreneurial spirit and open data sprinkled all over it. Things that are in woefully short supply in Russia.

Representing 11 percent of global supply, Russia produces 11.3 million b/d of oil. In a coordinated effort with OPEC and others to increase prices, Russia has promised to keep 230,000 b/d of its output (as compared to October levels) off the market.

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