Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

Modern project management cannot live without probabilities as any risk assessment would be bogus without one. But as so very often in the corporate/political world, the risk assessment has become a numbers game and hence the exercise itself has divorced itself from any semblance of know-how about what’s afoot. When I was a lot younger I accompanied my father to the casinos. My father was a reserved gambler. Reserved means he always decided how much he was going to gamble and always made sure it never conflicted with his obligations as a family man. He calculated probabilities. Were his figures right? Hardly, but there was a possibility. But if there is not even a smidgen of hard facts like in ACC, it’s useless to establish figures. They are by their very nature bogus. But those wanting to distract from the fundamental problem like them a lot. 

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