Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

Modern project management cannot live without probabilities as any risk assessment would be bogus without one. But as so very often in the corporate/political world, the risk assessment has become a numbers game and hence the exercise itself has divorced itself from any semblance of know-how about what’s afoot. When I was a lot younger I accompanied my father to the casinos. My father was a reserved gambler. Reserved means he always decided how much he was going to gamble and always made sure it never conflicted with his obligations as a family man. He calculated probabilities. Were his figures right? Hardly, but there was a possibility. But if there is not even a smidgen of hard facts like in ACC, it’s useless to establish figures. They are by their very nature bogus. But those wanting to distract from the fundamental problem like them a lot. 

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you’ll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability does not exist, …

William M. Briggs

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